Banca de DEFESA: BRUNO AFONSO DE OLIVEIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : BRUNO AFONSO DE OLIVEIRA
DATE: 09/12/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Plataforma Teams
TITLE:

MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF CENTRAL BANK BALANCE-SHEET

KEY WORDS:

Central Banks. Balance Sheet. Macroeconomic Variables. Financial Independence. Monetary Policy

PAGES: 44
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

This study examines the determinants of central bank balance sheet size and their interactions
with key macroeconomic variables—including gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, exchange rate, and financial independence—over the period 2008 to 2023. The analysis emphasizes the growing relevance of balance sheet dynamics in the execution of monetary policy,
particularly in the aftermath of global financial crises, when unconventional monetary policy
instruments have become increasingly prominent. By investigating a panel of 150 central banks
worldwide, this research addresses a gap in the literature by jointly assessing the effects of multiple macroeconomic and institutional factors on the financial structure of central banks. The
empirical strategy employs an unbalanced panel data framework and dynamic regression models estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM), which allows for the correction of endogeneity, serial correlation, and unobserved heterogeneity, while
capturing the temporal dynamics among the variablesThe empirical results indicate that economic growth has a negative and statistically significant effect on balance sheet size, suggesting
countercyclical central bank action. The exchange rate showed a positive relationship in static
models and a negative one in dynamic models, reflecting different adjustment mechanisms.
Inflation showed a negative and statistically significant relationship in static models, but no significance in the dynamic model. Central bank independence did not demonstrate robust significance in either model, reinforcing that its influence manifests itself more directly in monetary
policy conduct than in balance sheet structure. Overall, the study contributes to the literature
by providing a comprehensive view of the macroeconomic variables that determine the size of
central bank balance sheets. Understanding the factors that influence these balance sheets is essential for guiding monetary policy decisions and assessing the effectiveness of central banks.
In this way, policymakers can better anticipate shocks, calibrate normalization strategies, and
strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. In summary, rather than
defining an optimal size, the main concern is to ensure that the balance sheet remains consistent
with the institutional role of central banks as monetary authorities

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - FABIANO GUASTI LIMA - USP
Presidente - 1997721 - HERBERT KIMURA
Interno - 1999345 - JOSE ALVES DANTAS
Externo à Instituição - LEONARDO FERNANDO CRUZ BASSO - MACKENZIE