Banca de DEFESA: VANESSA DE MOURA MINERVINO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : VANESSA DE MOURA MINERVINO
DATE: 19/02/2026
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Google Meet - LINK: https://meet.google.com/hey-ygpr-qta
TITLE:

"Impact of the Introduction of CBDC on the Financial Statements of the Central Bank of Brazil"

KEY WORDS:

Digital Currencies. CBDC. Drex. Accounting. Central Bank

PAGES: 73
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Administração
SUBÁREA: Ciências Contábeis
SUMMARY:

Digital payments and tokenization have led central banks to test new forms of public
money. This study examines, from an accounting perspective, how the introduction of a retail
CBDC, treated as a direct liability of the Central Bank that does not pay interest, could affect
the financial statements of the Central Bank of Brazil. The paper adapts to the Brazilian context
the model of Gust et al. (2023) and runs simulations for different adoption levels, combining
two operational responses, accepting the reduction in bank reserves or restoring liquidity
through purchases of government securities. The simulations indicate that the effects vary
depending on the accommodation strategy. Without restoration, the main change is in the
composition of liabilities, with a decline in bank reserves. With restoration, the balance sheet
expands through an increase in the securities portfolio, with effects on seigniorage and the net
result. In terms of order of magnitude, over the simulated period, the CBDC stock ranged from
about BRL 48 billion to BRL 940 billion, equivalent to 0.78% to 8.01% of GDP. The simulated
annual change in the result ranged between BRL 1.2 billion and BRL 31.0 billion and, relative
to the actual result, corresponded on average to 13.45% in years when the actual result was
positive and to −33.35% in years when the actual result was negative. To separate the theoretical
exercise from ongoing policy, a qualitative step compares the scenarios with the design of the
Drex Project. Based on documents and an interview with a project participant, this step indicates
that the current design tokenizes deposits and assets, without creating a retail liability of the
Central Bank, so the estimated impacts are not a projection for Drex. The study contributes by
bringing CBDC accounting and operational design closer together, showing that
implementation choices affect the classification and composition of the central bank balance
sheet and can influence interest rate formation in the banking market. In the framework
examined, if the migration of deposits to CBDC is not accompanied by a restoration of reserves,
the reduction in the liquidity buffer can put upward pressure on interbank funding rates and
widen the spread between wholesale credit market rates and the remuneration of reserves. In
the opposite direction, restoring reserves through purchases of securities preserves liquidity and
reduces pressure on short term rates. The adjustment then occurs in the size and composition of
the central bank asset side, with implications for risk and the net result.

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - ERCÍLIO ZANOLLA - UFG
Presidente - 1999345 - JOSE ALVES DANTAS
Interno - 1122873 - SERGIO RICARDO MIRANDA NAZARE