ESG in Valuation Models: Economic Information or Symbolic Use in the Capital Markets?
ESG, Valuation, Capital markets, Professional judgment, Value Creation.
This project investigates whether environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) factors are effectively incorporated into valuation models used by analysts and investment managers or whether they remain predominantly in the symbolic and discursive realm of capital markets. Although the empirical literature documents positive associations between ESG performance and financial variables such as risk, return, and cost of capital, this evidence is largely ex post and does not allow for an understanding of how ESG information is processed at the moment of value formation. Based on this gap, the study adopts a quasi-experimental scenario-based approach, applied to financial market professionals, to directly analyze valuation judgment and decisions under controlled conditions of uncertainty. The methodological design uses scenarios that systematically vary the presentation of ESG information, in aggregate form and disaggregated across the environmental, social, and governance pillars, while keeping constant the financial assumptions underlying value formation. The responses allow for the assessment of whether the introduction of ESG results in explicit adjustments to the core assumptions of financial models, such as cash flows, discount rate, and terminal value, or whether its effect is restricted to narrative framing and institutional legitimation. By focusing on the decision-making process, the study contributes to the debate on the informational limits of ESG and to the understanding of its role in value formation in capital markets.