INTERNAL ASSESSMENT IN MONEY LAUNDERING ELUCIDATION: RISK DETERMINANTS IN BRAZILIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
money laundering prevention; internal risk assessment; ML risk determinants; AML; financial crimes
This study identifies the risk determinants of money laundering (ML) in Brazilian financial institutions by analyzing Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs), known in Brazil as Comunicações de Operações Suspeitas (COS), submitted between 2010 and 2022. The research employs quantitative methods, including multivariate regression analysis, and utilizes Scientometrics for literature review. The results demonstrate the empirical validation of risk determinants signaled by the risk assessment framework of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and COAF. Additionally,
the research reveals that large urban and financial centers are the main statistically significant determinant of ML risk. This finding suggests that, despite the natural concentration of Financial Institutions (FIs) in these locations, the persistent correlation with the volume of SARs requires these areas to receive an increase in the inherent risk rating in the FIs’ internal AML assessment. Local economic size (GDP) proved relevant, though its influence decreased after 2016. Border regions and mining activities did not show consistent statistical significance in the post-regulation period. The study concludes that prevention policies must integrate the empirical validation of
regulatory risk factors while prioritizing qualified monitoring in financial hubs through a higher risk classification