Banca de DEFESA: JAQUELINE RODRIGUES DE OLIVEIRA

CONTINGENCY FACTORS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN A PUBLIC UNIVERSITY: Evidence from the University of Brasília

Contingency Theory; University Governance and Performance; University of Brasília.

Financial sustainability has become a central issue in the public management agenda of Brazilian public universities due to increasing fiscal pressures and the transformations introduced by New Public Management reforms. In this context, this research adopts Contingency Theory as its theoretical framework, assuming that
financial performance depends on the alignment between internal organizational characteristics (structure, strategy, culture, size) and external environmental pressures. Accordingly, the study examines the University of Brasília (UnB) from 2015 to 2024, analyzing the relationship between contingency variables and two main sources of financial performance: (i) the Budget Allocation (MO), an exogenous source defined by federal criteria; and (ii) the Indirect Cost Revenue (CI), an endogenous source generated through academic projects. Hypotheses were formulated for each model, predicting that MO would respond primarily to institutional size, while CI would be sensitive to strategic actions (projects) and to the institutional environment, especially after the creation of CAPRO, a unit responsible for centralizing the management of indirect cost revenues since 2018. This analytical distinction enabled the evaluation of two funding logics: one structural and imposed, and another strategic and manageable. The results of Model 1 (MO) confirmed the predominantly exogenous nature of budget allocation. Academic field and the creation of CAPRO were not statistically significant, indicating that internal governance initiatives have limited impact on the government-allocated budget. Conversely, Model 2 (CI) showed outcomes aligned with the contingency framework: the number of faculty members, the volume of projects, and the implementation of CAPRO exerted positive and statistically significant effects on indirect cost revenues. These findings demonstrate that strategy and institutional management matter for financial sustainability and may reduce vulnerability to fiscal instability. Additionally, significant heterogeneity was found across major fields of knowledge: Engineering, Social Sciences and Applied Fields, and Linguistics/Arts showed stronger elasticities in revenue generation, while Humanities and Health Sciences had lower capacity for project-based funding, revealing how cultural and disciplinary factors condition financial performance. In conclusion, the findings reinforce the core assumption of Contingency Theory: the higher the institutional adaptation to contextual contingencies, particularly regarding governance professionalization and project management, the stronger the financial performance.