Banca de DEFESA: FRANCIELLE RODRIGUES DO NASCIMENTO VOLTARELLI DE FREITAS

BEYOND EDUCATION: THE FISCAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE PRESENCE OF FEDERAL UNIVERSITIES IN BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES

Federal universities; Socioeconomic impacts; Fiscal impacts; Regional development; Propensity Score Matching; Difference-in-Differences; Random Forest.

This dissertation aimed to assess the fiscal and socioeconomic effects in Brazilian municipalities with the presence of federal universities, with an emphasis on the territorial effects of the interiorization of public higher education. The investigation integrated theoretical and empirical approaches in a systematic manner. Initially, a historical and territorial survey of the expansion of federal universities in Brazil was conducted, with the REUNI Program as the historical milestone. A systematic literature review followed, covering national and international studies based on theoretical lenses—technical-scientific, cultural, environmental, socioeconomic, and fiscal—providing support for variable selection and result interpretation. The quantitative stage involved the application of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to construct comparable groups of municipalities with and without federal universities. Subsequently, the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model was applied, with a three-phase temporal division (pre-REUNI, during REUNI, and post-REUNI), to estimate the effects over time between treatment, control, and intermediate groups. As a complementary step, the Random Forest method was applied to rank the relative importance of the variables in distinguishing the groups, offering an additional exploratory perspective to the causal analysis. The results indicated significant positive effects in municipalities with university presence, especially in the post-REUNI period. Notable findings include a reduction in illiteracy and extreme poverty rates, and an increase in life expectancy at birth. In the fiscal domain, there was a significant increase in both net revenue and own-source revenue per capita, as well as greater public spending per capita in essential areas, suggesting that federal universities contributed to strengthening the municipalities’ financial structure. The variable importance analysis using Random Forest reinforced these findings, highlighting own-source revenue per capita, public investments, and social indicators as relevant factors in differentiating municipalities with and without universities. This study contributes by combining rigorous statistical methods with a critical-reflective theoretical framework, enhancing the understanding of the effects of federal universities on regional development, with a central focus on fiscal impacts. By demonstrating how university presence can boost local revenue capacity and the allocation of public resources, the results offer relevant insights for the planning of educational and territorial public policies. Future research is encouraged to conduct case studies in local contexts to explore more deeply the fiscal and institutional mechanisms through which these effects take place.