Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ARTHUR BARBOSA MAGDALENO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ARTHUR BARBOSA MAGDALENO
DATE: 25/02/2025
TIME: 16:00
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

ciclos político-orçamentários, probabilidade de reeleição, eleições, municípios brasileiro

KEY WORDS:

political budget cycles, re-election probabilities, elections, Brazilian local governments

PAGES: 14
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

Budget cycles in wich budget functions affect the likelihood of re-election of mayors in Brasil?Municipal or elector characteristics, such as the quality of the public services, educational level, family income, and more, do affect the size of the spending effects on the re-election likelihood?

This research aims to study the case of Brazilian mayors between 2005 and 2020. The fiscal data used of all Brazilian municipalities comes from SICONFI, data from the candidates and election results comes from TSE and data of the characteristics of municipalities comes from the demographic censuses of 2000 and 2010 of IBGE. Here, a panel probit model is adopted to estimate the effects of the increase in expenditure in each local government function, in the electoral and pre-electoral years, have on the likelihood of re-election of mayors. The marginal effects of each regression are then ordered along variables that quantify characteristics of the municipal population, in order to see what characteristics are associated with a higher or lesser electoral reward to each bugetary function. This study’s relevance comes from bringing a more refined view of the elector’s response to the political budget cycle varying on its characteristics, so we can find heterogenous behaviour among the population of a same country. Those behaviours can go unnoticed in an analysis that does not take into account the variation of the electors characteristics

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN
Interno - 2003700 - MICHAEL CHRISTIAN LEHMANN