Banca de DEFESA: MARIANA OLIVEIRA E SILVA BACCIOTTI

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARIANA OLIVEIRA E SILVA BACCIOTTI
DATE: 21/02/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: a definir
TITLE:

URBAN FORM AND SUSTAINABILITY: Impacts of Spatial Configuration on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil

KEY WORDS:

density, greenhouse gas emissions, urban form, sprawl, fragmentation, centrality

PAGES: 174
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This thesis brings together three independent but interrelated papers that investigate the relationship between urban form and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil. The first paper examines the impact of density on emissions. An urban density metric is employed to capture the relationship between population and urban area, excluding large rural areas often included in conventional demographic density indices. Panel regression analyses demonstrate that area-specific urban density plays a significant role in reducing GHG emissions, even after controlling for variables such as economic development and population size. These conclusions apply to the different geographical scales considered—27 states, 137 mesoregions, 558 microregions, and 4,298 comparable minimum areas (CMAs)—over the period from 1991 to 2010. The second paper develops a spatial metrics database to deepen the characterization of urban form in Brazil. It extends the analysis beyond urban density, considering spatial aspects of urban form, identifying differences between areas, and evaluating changes over time. Land use and land cover maps were used to estimate landscape metrics and derive indicators for 187 medium- and large-sized urban concentrations in 1985, 1991, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2022. Using the landscapemetrics package in R, five indicators were generated: urban extent, fragment complexity, urban boundary complexity, centrality, and compactness. The results show that the average urban area increased from 36.69 km² (1985) to 103.60 km² (2022), with greater centrality and reduced fragment and boundary complexity. Urban concentrations with higher GDP per capita and HDI exhibited greater urban extent and centrality but lower fragment and boundary complexity, with no statistical differences in compactness. Finally, the third paper utilizes the metrics developed in the second to further analyze the relationship between urban form and GHG emissions. An urban dispersion indicator was created, integrating aspects such as fragmentation, centrality, and compactness. A modified STIRPAT model was applied to medium- and large-sized urban concentrations in Brazil, covering the period from 1991 to 2010. The results reveal that urban density is associated with a reduction in per capita carbon emissions, with an estimated elasticity of -0.737, while dispersion increases emissions, with an elasticity of 2.915. These findings underscore the need for urban policies that promote densification, compactness, and reduced fragmentation, combined with incentives for public transport and active mobility. Land-use regulations and fiscal instruments tailored to local contexts can also contribute to the development of more sustainable urban structures.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - CIRO BIDERMAN - FGV/SP
Externo à Instituição - MAYUMI CURSINO DE MOURA HIRYE - UC
Interno - 403969 - JORGE MADEIRA NOGUEIRA
Interno - 1304779 - LUCAS VITOR DE CARVALHO SOUSA
Presidente - 993687 - MARCELO DE OLIVEIRA TORRES