The Role of Media in Central Bank Communication: Evidence from a Survey-based Experiment
Central Bank Communication; InflationExpectations; Media
This dissertation investigates how media reporting on the Brazilian Central Bank's (BCB) communication impacts the inflation expectations and trust of the general public. The research employs Natural Language Processing (NLP) to ensure consistent informational content across treatments and examines how variations in source attribution influence public responses. Using a survey-based experimental design, participants were exposed to one of four information treatments: the original COPOM statement, a news article covering the statement, or abridged versions of the statement with varying attributions. Participants' inflation expectations and trust in the BCB were measured before and after the treatments, allowing the study to isolate the effects of media content and perceived credibility. This study contributes to the literature by providing novel evidence on the interplay between media and central bank communication in shaping public expectations, particularly in the context of a high-inflation economy like Brazil.