Banca de DEFESA: Felipe Morelli da Silva

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Felipe Morelli da Silva
DATE: 16/12/2025
TIME: 08:30
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

Climate Risks and the Carbon Market in Brazil: A Study Using Computable General Equilibrium Models

KEY WORDS:

Climate change. Carbon market. General equilibrium models. GHG emissions. Environmental policies.

PAGES: 125
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUBÁREA: Economias Agrária e dos Recursos Naturais
SPECIALTY: Economia dos Recursos Naturais
SUMMARY:

The goal of this thesis project was to adapt a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model inspired by Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019) to also address environmental issues. The original model by these authors is dynamic, features a broad spatial structure, and stands out for explicitly incorporating several relevant mechanisms: labor mobility frictions, trade costs, intersectoral input-output linkages, international and intersectoral trade (with the possibility of including interregional trade), and consumption of local final goods aggregated via a Cobb-Douglas function (with the possibility of extension to CES preferences). However, the main methodological contribution of the model by Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019) is the use of dynamic exact-hat algebra, which enables solving for equilibrium and conducting counterfactual analyses without needing to estimate the levels of economic fundamentals (such as productivity, migration frictions, or trade costs). The adaptation proposed in this thesis consists of including emissions as a factor of production, following the approach of Copeland, Taylor (2013), within the original framework of Caliendo, Dvorkin and Parro (2019). This theoretical extension allows for the analysis of environmental policy instruments such as carbon markets on emissions, within a consistent general equilibrium framework that incorporates trade and migration. We consider this theoretical extension to be the main contribution of this thesis project, as it enables an integrated evaluation of environmental and trade policies in a dynamic and spatially structured model. To ensure the project went beyond the theoretical realm, we propose a practical simulation of a carbon market in Brazil starting in 2026, with three different scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, taking 2005 as the baseline year. All scenarios aim for a 50% total reduction in emissions by 2030, reaching approximately 1.28 Gt CO₂e, but they differ in how this target is distributed between deforestation and productive sectors. In Scenario I, the most restrictive one, all sectors — including deforestation — reduce their emissions proportionally by 50%, generating the largest decline in Value Added (VA), of approximately 0.83% by 2030. In Scenario II, less restrictive than the first, emission reductions are concentrated in deforestation (70%), while the other sectors reduce emissions by only 18%, resulting in an intermediate economic impact, with an accumulated decrease of 0.35% in VA. In Scenario III, the least restrictive for productive activities, deforestation emissions fall by 81.5% while emissions from the other sectors remain constant, producing the mildest macroeconomic effect, with a reduction of only 0.15% in VA. Therefore, the results show that the greater the policy focus on deforestation, the lower the economic costs of the transition and the smoother the adjustment for productive sectors. Moreover, in all scenarios, aggregate employment remains relatively stable despite reallocations across sectors — from more emission-intensive activities toward less emission-intensive ones, such as services — which suggests the need for complementary policies capable of preserving the productivity of the Brazilian economy.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - RICARDO BRUNO NASCIMENTO DOS SANTOS - UFPA
Externa à Instituição - JOÃO MARIA DE OLIVEIRA - IPEA
Presidente - 1304779 - LUCAS VITOR DE CARVALHO SOUSA
Interno - 993687 - MARCELO DE OLIVEIRA TORRES
Interna - 5161871 - MILENE TAKASAGO