Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARCOS GABRIEL GOULART DE ANDRADE

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARCOS GABRIEL GOULART DE ANDRADE
DATE: 10/03/2026
TIME: 16:00
LOCAL: Video Conferência
TITLE:

Does the Ideological Alignment of Politicians Matter? Evidence from Brazilian Municipal Elections

KEY WORDS:

Political ideology; Mayors; Municipal public finance; Regression Discontinuity Design; Brazil.

PAGES: 27
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation investigates whether the ideological orientation of Brazilian mayors—classified along a left–right spectrum—affects municipal public policy outcomes. Using data from Brazilian municipal elections between 2000 and 2020, combined with fiscal information from the National Treasury and health indicators from DATASUS, the study examines potential differences in revenue composition, public spending, and health outcomes across municipalities governed by left-wing and right-wing mayors. The empirical analysis begins with ordinary least squares estimations, both unconditional and controlling for relevant socioeconomic characteristics. It then employs a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) strategy, exploiting close electoral races between candidates from different ideological blocs to identify causal effects. The results show no statistically significant differences in fiscal behavior or health outcomes between left-wing and right-wing mayors, either in the period immediately following the election or when considering averages over the full term in office. These findings suggest that, at the municipal level in Brazil, institutional constraints, fiscal rules, and inter-municipal competition may substantially limit the scope for ideological differentiation in public policy implementation.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 1196877 - BERNARDO PINHEIRO MACHADO MUELLER
Presidente - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN