Banca de DEFESA: JORGE EDUARDO DE MORAIS FERREIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : JORGE EDUARDO DE MORAIS FERREIRA
DATE: 06/03/2026
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: a definir
TITLE:

 

 Unconventional Monetary Policy and Industry: The US Economic Experience

KEY WORDS:

 Unconventional monetary policy. Quantitative easing. Industrial production.
Bayesian MF-VAR. U.S. economy.

PAGES: 62
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation investigates the effects of unconventional monetary policy on the industrial
sector of the U.S. economy in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. The main objective is to
assess whether the large-scale quantitative easing programs implemented by the Federal
Reserve were able to mitigate the recessionary impact on industrial production and prevent a
deeper economic collapse. To this end, a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR (MF-VAR) model
is employed, combining weekly and monthly variables from January 2017 to December 2024,
following the methodological framework of Schorfheide and Song (2015) and Feldkircher,
Huber and Pfarrhofer (2021). The results indicate that the expansionary shock associated with
increases in the monetary aggregate M2 did not generate persistent inflationary pressures nor a
robust expansion of aggregate output. Inflation responses remained moderate, while GDP
effects were transitory and statistically limited. In contrast, industrial production displayed
greater sensitivity to monetary expansion, suggesting the predominance of the financial
transmission channel, particularly through risk premium compression and asset price
revaluation.The empirical findings reinforce the post-Keynesian interpretation that there is no
automatic monetary multiplier capable of transforming reserve expansion into sustained output
growth or inflation acceleration. Investment decisions fundamentally depend on effective
demand expectations, and monetary policy alone has limited capacity to induce structural
productive expansion. The evidence suggests that quantitative easing primarily functioned as a
financial stabilization instrument, necessary to mitigate systemic risks but insufficient to
generate a self-sustained cycle of industrial growth without coordination with expansionary
fiscal policies.

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interna - 1220662 - ADRIANA MOREIRA AMADO
Interna - 2964829 - DANIELA FREDDO
Externo à Instituição - HÉLIO MAURÍCIO MIRANDA DA FONSECA - ANATEL
Presidente - 1665706 - RICARDO SILVA AZEVEDO ARAUJO