Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: THAUFFIC AMIM MEIRELES HAMDAN

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : THAUFFIC AMIM MEIRELES HAMDAN
DATE: 17/12/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: A DEFESA SERÁ REALIZADA POR VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

External Demand Shocks, Export Intensity and Productivity: Sectoral Evidence for Brazilian Industry (2015–2019)

KEY WORDS:

international trade; productivity; export intensity; learning-by-exporting; Brazilian industry.

PAGES: 90
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This dissertation investigates the relationship between sectoral export intensity and productivity in the Extractive and Manufacturing Industries of Brazil over the period 2015–2019. Grounded in International Trade Theory, the New Trade Theory, and heterogeneous-firm models à la Melitz, the study engages with the learning-by-exporting (LBE) literature, which distinguishes self-selection effects from potential productivity gains arising from export experience. Drawing on international and Brazilian evidence based on microdata, which points to robust self-selection and heterogeneous learning across firms, the research shifts the focus to the sectoral level, seeking to verify whether changes in export intensity leave an identifiable “signature” in the trajectory of aggregate productivity. To this end, a balanced sectoral panel is constructed for 27 activities in the Extractive and Manufacturing Industries (CNAE 2.0, two-digit), with annual information on real value added, employment, capital stock, exports, measures of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP), as well as an external demand shock indicator in a shift-share format. The empirical strategy treats sectoral export intensity as an explanatory variable with an exogenous component derived from these external demand shocks and estimates contemporaneous and lagged responses of productivity. The central objective is to distinguish transient gains associated with scale, capacity utilization, and reallocation from those compatible with persistent learning, as well as to explore differences between extractive and manufacturing sectors. The dissertation thus aims to contribute to the reconciliation between theory, microeconomic evidence, and aggregate outcomes, providing inputs for the design of export-promotion policies from a sectoral perspective.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 2353515 - ANTONIO NASCIMENTO JUNIOR
Interno - 1229140 - ROBERTO DE GOES ELLERY JUNIOR