The political economy of Brazilian fiscal policy
fiscal policy; political economy; debt dynamics; fiscal rules; public accounts.
The importance of fiscal policy is not restricted to dealing with crises. Its role is decisive to face different moments of economic cycles that countries experience and to achieve various cyclical and structural objectives. In the fiscal policy management, one of the main concerns refers to public debt dynamics, compliance with fiscal rules and the guarantee of budgetary resources at an appropriate level in order to ensure institution operations and public policy implementation aiming at the country's development. However, the implementation and definition of fiscal and budgetary measures are permeated by disputes between different interest groups in society and they are supported by different lines of economic thought, especially the ones regarding restrictions, speed, fiscal adjustment and the State size. In order to analyze the complexity inherent in the management of fiscal policy, this thesis deals with Brazil's public debt dynamics from 2002 to 2024 and the prospective scenarios from 2025 to 2040, the main fiscal and budgetary rules and restrictions in force in Brazil from the Federal Constitution of 1988 until 2023 and the performance of public accounts between 2014 and 2023, as well as the analysis of different interest groups from the perspective of the political economy and the fiscal challenges in Brazil.