Banca de DEFESA: ARTHUR BARBOSA MAGDALENO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ARTHUR BARBOSA MAGDALENO
DATE: 30/09/2025
TIME: 16:00
LOCAL: Video Conferência
TITLE:

Voters and budget functions: the influence of pre-electoral spending on mayoral reelection in Brazil

KEY WORDS:

Political budget cycles, reelection probability, Brazilian local governments, elections

PAGES: 35
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This master’s thesis studies the relation between local governments’ public spending and the reelection probability of it’s mayors in Brazil. Under the political budget cycles framework with a panel probit model, its investigated which budget functions yield a higher electoral reward when the incumbent focuses the spending on the second half of the term. Aditionally, the voters’ characteristics are interacted with the budget functions to identify if those rewards change with the populations heterogeneity. It was used the municipalities spending data by functional classification from the National Treasury Secretariat (STN), the results of the municipal elections from 2008 to 2020, social security data (Cadastro Único), and the electorate’s statistics from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The results show that there’s a positive reward to spending at the end of the term on the functions of Culture, Sports & Recreation and Health, and negative to Administration. Also, there’s a significative bonus when the mayor is of the same party as the governor, if it has a degree, and if is a man. Concerning the electorate’s characteristics, it was found that the age plays an important role on the budgetary preferences: the marginal effect of pre-electoral spending with Health and Culture grows the higher the proportion of elders is, an inverse of what is found with Sports & Recreation and Education, functions more rewarded by younger voters. About education level, the marginal effect of Health was higher among the municipalities with the higher percentages of people with secondary education

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS YAMADA NAKAGUMA - USP
Presidente - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN
Interno - 2003700 - MICHAEL CHRISTIAN LEHMANN
Interno - 4079124 - VANDER MENDES LUCAS