Banca de DEFESA: Raphael José Pereira Freitas

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Raphael José Pereira Freitas
DATE: 28/07/2025
TIME: 16:00
LOCAL: Video Conferência
TITLE:

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Brazil and the Behavioral Approach

KEY WORDS:

 Bayesian inference; Cognitive biases; Economic forecasting; Fiscal-monetary interaction.

PAGES: 81
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This Thesis examines the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil, focusing on the implications of bounded rationality in economic modeling. It seeks to compare the impacts of rational and behavioral approaches on macroeconomic variables in response to policy shocks, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of Brazil’s economic dynamics. The study utilizes a new Keynesian DSGE model with Bayesian estimation, analyzing quarterly data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2023Q4. The model evaluates the differential responses of macroeconomic variables — GDP, primary surplus and deficit, private consumption, inflation, public debt and interest rate — under rational and behavioral approaches. The analysis reveals that, while the rational approach is theoretically consistent, its assumptions of instantaneous adjustments and fully rational agents render it less applicable to Brazil’s economic context. In contrast, the behavioral approach better captures the gradual adjustments and adaptive responses of economic agents, accounting for cognitive limitations and biases. This research contributes to the field of behavioral macroeconomics by applying the concept of bounded rationality to Brazil, an economy marked by structural volatility and adaptive policy dynamics. Finally, by integrating recent scenarios, such as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, this manuscript broadens the understanding of how economic shocks impact selected macroeconomic variables. As a result, it not only advances theoretical economic modeling but also serves as a practical tool to guide the formulation of more effective public policies tailored to the complexities of the Brazilian economy.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interna - 1220662 - ADRIANA MOREIRA AMADO
Externo à Instituição - GUSTAVO JOSE DE GUIMARAES E SOUZA - IDP
Presidente - ***.856.560-** - JOAQUIM PINTO DE ANDRADE - NÃO INFORMADO
Interno - 1122828 - JORGE SABA ARBACHE FILHO
Externo à Instituição - JOSE ANGELO COSTA DO AMOR DIVINO - UCB