Opportunities for carbon neutral coffeefarming – prospectiveeconomicanalysis
economicsofclimatechange; coffeeproduction, carbonmarket; financial andeconomicviability
This thesisanalyzes, prospectively, the financial feasibilityoftheinsertionofcoffeecultivation in thecarbonmarket, basedon its potentialtoreducegreenhousegas (GHG) emissionsandthepossibleprofitabilityofthe trade ofcarboncredits in a regulatedmarket in Brazil. Toestimatetheprofitabilityfromcarboncredits, simulationswerecarried out considering 2,583 observationsofdailyquotations, in the 10-year periodoftheclosingofthe Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Global Carbon Futures Index, an index composedofthepricesofthe four mosttradedcarbonmarkets in the world. Thus, withtheprojectionsofminimumviablearea, it waspossibletoinferthepotential for insertionofBraziliancoffeeproduction in thecarbonmarket, throughcensus data of rural coffee establishments. The resultsofthisresearchindicatedthelowexpectedeffectivenessoftheenvironmentalpublicpolicyofnegotiablelicenses (cap and trade), specifically for Braziliancoffeegrowing, consideringthat rural propertieswithminimumviablearea for thecommercializationofcarboncredits are equivalenttolessthan 12% ofthe total rural properties. Thus, thisresearchcontributesbyindicatingtheneed for theplanningoftheimplementationofthismarkettoadopttechnicalandinstitutionalmechanismsthatreducethecostsofcertification – a significanttransactioncost – to make thisenvironmentalpolicy more effective, withenvironmentalconservationand social inclusion.