Judicial Fiscal Risks: Using Lawsuit Metadata to Estimate the Time until Federal Payment Orders in Brazil
judicial fiscal risks; court-ordered payments; forecasting models; machine learning; lawsuits.
This research project analyzes judicial fiscal risks, focusing on forecasting the time required to issue federal payment orders (precatórios) based on judicial case metadata, such as jurisdiction, court of origin, case subject, involved public entities and the date of final judgment. The research aims to develop and apply statistical and computational methods to estimate the duration of the enforcement phase, defined as the time between the final judgment and inclusion in the Federal Budget Law. The goal is to enhance predictability of public expenses and reduce fiscal risk uncertainties, offering valuable insights for budget planning and fiscal management.